Startup founders, Big Tech execs, VCs, and tech scholars offer their predictions on how Web3, the metaverse, and other emerging ideas will shape the next year.
“Big things have small beginnings.” That line from Lawrence of Arabia may be a good way of characterizing the coming year in tech. Tech that will be very important to the future will begin graduating from R&D labs and enter the marketplace. More self-driving automobiles will traverse the roadways. Augmented reality glasses may even start showing up in public. The U.S. government is likely to begin regulating Big Tech in such areas as antitrust and privacy. The industry will continue talking about, and in some cases even building for, the metaverse. And some of the foundational technologies underpinning Web3 may begin to take hold.
But those are just the broad strokes. Again this year my colleagues and I spun our Roledexes looking for the smartest and best-placed people we know to offer their predictions. We asked startup founders, Big Tech execs, VCs, scholars, and other experts to speculate on the coming year within their field of interest. Altogether, we collected more than 40 predictions about 2022. Together, they offer a smart composite look at the things we’re likely to be talking about by this time next year.
Alex Pasternack helped compile these responses, which have been lightly edited and pared down for length.
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES
Prem Natarajan, VP of natural understanding, Amazon Alexa
Pre-trained language models will enable new applications and experiences composed with far less developer effort than before. We will see more people tweeting and blogging about low-code and no-code frameworks that reduce developer friction in creating complex AI-powered applications. The second trend is what I think of as the “age of self” in AI. Advances in AI self-awareness and autonomous self-learning, e.g. teachable AI, will enable end users to directly customize applications to their particular needs and preferences, to generate creative content, and perhaps even be pleasantly surprised by timely proactive suggestions and actions by AI assistants.
Rodney Zemmel, global leader, McKinsey Digital
Quantum computing is still in a relatively early stage in its development, but we are seeing real advancements in the technology, and we’ve reached a point where executives need to consider its business implications. In 2022, we’ll continue to see a fast-developing ecosystem, increasing investment, and accelerating research breakthroughs. In 2021 alone, announced investments in quantum computing start-ups have surpassed $1.7 billion, more than double the amount raised in 2020. We expect private funding to continue increasing significantly in 2022 and beyond as quantum-computing commercialization gains traction.
Guido Groet, chief strategy officer, Luxexcel
2022 will be the year that numerous [mixed-reality glasses] products will be announced. Many companies will use this year to prepare for the market introduction of their first consumer product. 2023 will result in a start of small series production followed by a volume production the following year. The most essential components of any AR device are a good hardware and software platform on which applications can be developed. However, one can argue, that the ability for the consumer to jump on the development is of no lesser importance. For this to happen, an attractive, comfortable, and fashionable product must be first introduced to drive the interest.
Jillian York, director, International Freedom of Expression at the Electronic Frontier Foundation
I think we should be thinking about ethical and human rights issues pertaining to the AR and VR space, and relatedly, transparency from tech platforms as it pertains to privacy and content moderation. To the former point: This space is truly shaping up to be a wild west, and we shouldn’t underestimate the very real issues that arise when people enter realistic virtual spaces. It’s vital that we as consumers pay attention to the very real threats posed by the increasingly realistic virtual world . . . and remember, as we enjoy its development, that not everyone will have the same access to it. As for the latter, we’ve seen the harms that come when companies fail to moderate content–as well as when they over-moderate, particularly in cultural contexts where they lack competence. Better transparency doesn’t solve all of these problems, but it would be a huge step forward for users, advocates, and journalists alike to be able to start to make sense of how big tech corporate practices really work.
Vijay Pande, general partner, Andreessen Horowitz
Industrialized biotech will be the next industrial revolution in human history. COVID-19 has shown the world the promise of engineering in healthcare. Just look at how we developed the mRNA vaccine—and how fast. But we are just at the beginning of a revolution where AI drives industrialization across biopharma and healthcare, turning what was formerly manual into something that is repeatable, predictable, and scalable. Expect to see the rise of full stack companies with complete, end-to-end products or services that take biotech into huge markets beyond pharma and health and into manufacturing, construction, and durable goods—and in ways that combat, rather than exacerbate, climate change.
Frederike Kaltheuner, director of the European AI Fund, special advisor to the Vice President of the European Commission
Emergency-time tech will become infrastructure–for better or worse. The pandemic is dragging on, and so are the systems that have been put in place to quickly respond to what initially felt like a short-term state of exception. From more explicitly pandemic tech–contact tracing apps and digital vaccine certificates–to the fast paced digitization of the workplace, and the public sector all around the world, it looks like tech “scaffolding” will become part of a more permanent architecture in many contexts. That has been good and bad: good, because upgrades were long-overdue, and bad, because either the implementation was done sloppily or in ways that further shift power away from people and towards powerful companies or the government.
WEB3 AND THE BLOCKCHAIN
Shawn Carolan, partner, Menlo Ventures
2022 will officially end the debate over whether blockchain and Web3 is a meaningful pillar for the future of technology. We’ll see mainstream adoption and acceptance of blockchain for P2P payments, international remittances…and other common and useful applications that will start to cross the chasm from currency speculators to people who are just trying to live their lives better.
Kit Colbert, CTO, VMware
We’re going to see the value that enterprise blockchain provides become increasingly clear, and strong acceleration in production deployments in many industries, such as the financial services industry, in 2022. We’ll see even broader enterprise blockchain adoption in the financial services industry and in supply chain use cases, and we’ll see the first financial institutions go into production on blockchain technology. Also look for decentralized finance (DeFi) paradigms to make their way into mainstream enterprises: Enterprise tokens will emerge as the medium for payment in next-generation B2C networks, and central bank digital currencies will gain momentum.
Sri Viswanath, CTO, Atlassian
Over the next 5 years, Web 3.0 will upend the way we think about application development. Web 3.0 will rise as a result of the cracks in the current system, which puts user data in the hands of social media giants. Powered by blockchain technology, this new version of the web will usher in a decentralized internet and put data ownership back in the hands of the user. For the industry, it will completely change the way we approach application development and privacy.
THE NEXT LEAP IN CRYPTO
Joanna Lambert, president and GM, Yahoo
We see many businesses—particularly in the banking, payments, and technology space—making large investments in cryptocurrencies, while other companies create crypto opportunities for consumers with the marriage of credit and debit cards and expanded use cases of NFTs for both digital and physical items. Virtual real estate will become more commonplace in the NFT ecosystem next year as well given the sales happening in the metaverse as industries continue to intersect in 2022 and break new ground.
David Osojnik, CTO, Bitstamp
In 2021, developers have learned the possibilities around “play-to-earn” features. Allowing gamers to now earn bitcoin and other cryptos, as they play through a video game. Crypto also gives gamers the ability to utilize in-game currency from one game directly in another. 2022 will bring the development of a number of games created around the idea of play-to-earn and NFTs. Once well-known players start to earn crypto in-game, they’ll drive adoption from more and more everyday gamers looking to earn while playing.
Eric Sager, COO, Plaid
In 2022, we will see lenders, bureaus, and infrastructure providers collaborate more closely to incorporate a broader set of non-traditional data into credit decisions, moving more towards cashflow-based underwriting models which can paint a more accurate picture of consumers’ financial well being. This will include looking at things like BNPL, Crypto-assets and small dollar loans . . .
INTO THE METAVERSE
Dan Eckert, managing director, AI and emerging technology, PwC
An extended reality metaverse is still 3-5 years out: The metaverse—or should we say metaverses—has been around since the time of multiplayer computer games and even Second Life/AOL/Compuserve.
WHAT WE ARE REALLY SEEING IS THE REBRANDING AND EXPANDING OF THESE VIRTUAL WORLDS OF YESTERDAY INTO THE METAVERSES OF TOMORROW.”
DAN ECKERT, PWC LABS
Yes, plural–there will not be just one–there will be many, each designed for focused communities, capabilities, and experiences. The Metaverse, as being shouted by everyone, is not shipping (yet), but we are starting to see the building blocks released every day.
Sanjay Mehta, head of industry and ecommerce, Lucidworks
Brands are b